Abstract: Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical value of diameters of gallbladder polyp in forecasting carcinogenesis. Methods 420 patients with gallbladder polyps were recruited in our hospital between January 2010 and March 2019, and all patients underwent open or laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was applied to determine the risk factors of gallbladder carcinogenesis. The area under ROC curve (AUC) was drawn for sensitivity and specificity in predicting the malignant transformation of polyps with different diameters of gallbladder polyps. Results 388 patients had benign and 32 had malignant gallbladder polyps proven by post-operational histopathological examination; the age of patients with benign gallbladder polyps was (46.6 ±8.7) years, significantly younger than in patients with malignant gallbladder polyps; the diameter of benign gallbladder polyps was 6 (2, 27) mm, significantly less than in patients with malignant gallbladder polyps; there were no significant differences as respect to gender, number of gallbladder polyps, gallstone, serum carcinoembryonic antigen and CA19-9 levels and fasting blood glucose between patients with benign and malignant polyps; the multivariate analysis showed that the diameter of gallbladder polyps was an independent risk factor affecting the nature of gallbladder polyps (P < 0.05, OR =1.52, 95% CI:1.36-1.69); the ROC curve analysis demonstrated that the AUC was 0.89 (0.85 to 0.93), e.g. when the diameter of polyps was equal to 13 mm, the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 91.0% and 71.8%, respectively. Conclusions The diameter of gallbladder polyps is of high value in predicting gallbladder carcinoma. When the diameter is greater than 13 mm, the possibility of malignant transformation of gallbladder polyps is higher, and we recommend that the gallbladder polyps should be excised as soon as possible.

Key words: Gallbladder polyp, Cholecystectomy, Polyp diameter, Risk of malignance