Abstract: Objective To explore the non-invasive predictors of esophageal varices in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis（PBC）. Methods A total of 122 hospitalized PBC patients were retrospectively analyzed in this study. The degree of esophageal varices was judged by endoscopy,and other examinations including routine blood biochemical tests and abdominal ultrasonic as well as computer tomography were conducted. Child-Pugh score,model for end stage liver disease （MELD） score and Mayo score were calculated. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of esophageal varices in PBC patients. The best cut-off values were calculated based on receiver operating characteristic curves （ROC）. Results Out of 122 PBC patients,16（13.0%） were found without,while 106 （87.0%） with mild to severe degree of esophageal varices;Mayo score,albumin,cholinesterase,platelet count and the diameters of portal vein （PV） and splenic vein （SV） between the two groups were found with statistical difference in univariate analysis,but only the diameter of SV was found with statistical difference in the further multivariate analysis;When the cut-off value of SV was set as 8.5 millimeter,the area under ROC was 0.843 and the sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 72%,92.9%,98.6% and 31.7%,respectively. Conclusions The diameter of SV is the only predictor of esophageal varices in patients with PBC.

Key words: Primary biliary cirrhosis, Esophageal varices, Splenic vein, Non-invasive predictor