JOURNAL OF PRACTICAL HEPATOLOGY ›› 2015, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 387-390.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-5069.2015.04.014

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Logistic regression analysis on risk factors of esophageal variceal bleeding in patients with uncompensated liver cirrhosis

Dai Guangrong,Tan Yu’e,Liu Wenna,et al.   

  1. Department of Gastroenterology,Affiliated Hospital, Yan’an University,Yan’an 716000,Shaanxi Province,China
  • Received:2014-12-24 Online:2015-07-10 Published:2016-02-19

Abstract: Objective To discuss the related risk factors of esophageal variceal bleeding(EVB)in patients with liver cirrhosis and to find out an effective noninvasive index for predicting EVB. Methods A retrospective analysis of clinical data of 168 patients with liver cirrhosis were carried out,and 85 patients with and 83 without EVB were included. The clinical data that may affect the EVB were analyzed by Logistic regression analysis. Results The age,gender and causses of liver cirrhosis in the two groups had no statistically significant difference (P>0.05);The diameter of portal vein (DPV),diameter of splenic vein (DSV) and splenic index (SI) in patients with EVB were (1.48±0.28)cm,(1.08±0.19)cm and (72.54±16.69) cm2,respectively,significantly higher than those in without [(1.34±0.29)cm,(1.18±0.25)cm and (66.98±19.21) cm2,respectively,P<0.05];Serum Na+ and ratio of platelet counts/splenic length in patients with EVB were (139.45±3.41)mmol/L and(5.05±2.07)×109/L?cm-1,respectively,significantly lower than in without [(140.66±4.41) mmol/L and(8.99±4.36)×109/L?cm-1,respectively,P<0.05];The Child-Pugh class between the two groups was significantly different(P<0.05);Logistic regression analysis showed that DPV,DSV,ratio of platelet counts/splenic length and Child-Pugh classification between the two groups were statistically significant(OR=6.832,7.283,0.655,2.129,respectively,P<0.05),and multivariate and unconditioned Logistic regression analysis showed that only ratio of platelet counts/splenic length (OR=0.685,P=0.000)was an independent risk factor for EVB in patients with cirrhosis. Conclusion Ratio of platelet counts/splenic length might be used as an predictive index for EVB in patients with cirrhosis.

Key words: Liver cirrhosis, Esophageal variceal bleeding, Risk factors, Logistic regression