关键词: 非酒精性脂肪性肝病, 疾病负担, 发病率, 患病率

Abstract: Objective This study aimed to assess disease burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict its trends from 2020 to 2040. Methods This study retrieved database from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and Excel software was applied toillustrate the incidence, mortality, prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYS) burden of NAFLD during 1990 to 2021 period. R software was used to predict burden trends of the disease, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model (BAPC) was constructed to predict the incidence of the disease between 2020 and 2040. Results From 1990 to 2021, the overall burden of NAFLD demonstrated a rising trend, the standardized prevalence rate increased by 22.0% (AAPC = 0.6%, P< 0.01), and the standardized incidence rate increased by 18.3% (AAPC = 0.7%, P< 0.01);the BAPC model predicted that the disease burden of NAFLD would continue to rise over the next 20 years; by 2040, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) were expected to reach 780.0, 17706.9, 11306.1, and 8.2 per 100,000, respectively, representing increases of 25.6%, 13.5%, 78.9%, and 7.8%, respectivley compared to in 2021. Conclusion The disease burden of NAFLD in Chinese population increasesgreatly from 1990 to 2021, with younger men being at higher risk. Tailored prevention and treatment strategies should be developed based on the current disease burden characteristics to effectively reduce the negative impact on human health.

Key words: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, Disease burden, Incidence, Prevalence