Abstract: Objective The aim of this study was to investigate efficacy of estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) in predicting risk of metabolism-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in individuals without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods 468 non-diabetic individuals with MAFLD and 100 non-diabetic healthy persons were encountered in the First Affiliated Hospital, Naval Medical University between July and December 2023, clinical materials were routinely obtained, and eGDR were calculated. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was applied to reveal risk factors of MAFLD in non-diabetic population. All subjects were divided into Q1 to Q4 groups based on the eGDR quartiles, and the prevalence of MAFLD in each group was compared. ROC curve was plotted to evaluate the efficacy of eGDR in predicting MAFLD. Results Of individuals without diabetes in our series, MAFLD patients were older and more male than in healthy controls; BMI, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, serum triglyceride, total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, glycated hemoglobin, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, creatinine, urea nitrogen and uric acid levels were all higher (all P<0.001) , while serum high density lipoprotein-cholesterol and eGDR were lower (all P<0.001) than in control persons; multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age and BMI were independent risk factors for the occurrence of MAFLD, while diastolic blood pressure and eGDR were independent protective factors (P<0.05) in persons without diabetes; ROC analysis showed that the AUC of eGDR reduction in predicting the risk of MAFLD existence was 0.939 (95% CI:0.910 to 0.969, P<0.001), with a maximum Yoden index of 0.775, corresponding to an optimal cut-off value of 10.85 mg/kg/min, with a sensitivity of 89.5% and a specificity of 88.0%; Q4 group had the lowest prevalence of MAFLD (38.0%) compared to other three groups. Conclusions eGDR is a non-invasive and easily available indicator of insulin resistance. The decrease of eGDR is associated with the increased risk of MAFLD in non-diabetic individuals, and it has a good predictive efficacy for MAFLD.

Key words: Metabolism-associated fatty liver disease, Estimated glucose disposal rate, Insulin resistance, Non-diabetes population, Prediction